After yesterday’s post on the 1938 hurricane I was asked if it could happen again.
The answer is an unequivocal yes, and possibly within a decade or two. The return period for a category 3 storm is around eighty years according to the experts. We have had five “epic hurricanes” between 1635 and 1938. Forecasting methods are immensely better now than they were in 1938, but the coastal population and development in the Hamptons are far larger—so the danger is greater.
I remember Hurricane Gloria in September 1985. The National Hurricane Center first called it the “Storm of the Century” but later classified it as a less spectacular category 2. It arrived at low tide and we did not get the brunt of it, but I still saw waves breaking on the parking lot at Georgica Beach. Trees all around town had crashed onto houses or were blocking roads. Outlying areas were without power for as long as eleven days.
But this is nothing compared to the predicted effects of a more major storm. LIPA estimates that a direct hit from a category 3 hurricane would cause 750,000 to 1,000,000 power outages on Long Island, with 15 to 30 days required to restore service. A rare category 4 storm would inundate JFK Airport with twenty feet of water and flood the Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels.
This is awfully scary stuff. If we are threatened with a strong hurricane in the future, take the warnings seriously and do what the authorities advise.
Shinnecock Hills during Hurricane Gloria Photo: Newsday