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Real estate brokers in the Hamptons are smiling. Nothing new about that, however. Brokers are inherently optimistic. They absolutely always put on a happy face. Even if things are not red hot today, maybe they will be tomorrow. Or the day after. Or whenever the weather breaks, or the holidays are over, or the financial sector bonuses are paid. And that recent big sale? It’s not just a sale, you know, it’s a trend.
Ask any East End broker about the recession years and they’ll explain why now it is different—really, really different. The stock market has been lurching forward (and, well, back too), the money’s returned (sort of) so it’s got to be good year for real estate. And while it’s true there has been a string of pricey sales in recent months, the momentum has not necessarily pushed many somewhat less than splendid properties across the finish line. That just might be a sweet spot in the market now.
I asked three real estate management executives whose jobs involve looking at the bigger picture what their opinions are.
Debra Reece, brokerage manager of Sotheby’s International Realty in Bridgehampton, seems sanguine. “The first half of 2011 was stronger than the recent past. Reality seems to have set in among sellers—and buyers too. Plus we had a good rental season.” She feels there is confidence in the Hamptons real estate “micromarket,” but when asked would not commit to calling it a rosy picture. “It’s a stable picture,” Reece pointed out, with the deliberation of a lawyer, which she happens to be.
Corcoran, according to regional senior vice president Rick Hoffman, had a good winter and spring, and even though he sees “a wait and see mentality out there right now,” thinks this is an opportune time for buyers. Rather than generalize, he pointed out “the bargains are in the individual negotiated deals.”
Dottie Herman, president and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, runs one of the most visible real estate brokerages in the country, and is a clear-eyed observer of the scene. “Brokers are optimistic because it’s their living,” she told me. “They have to be. But you can’t keep telling the public it’s great, great, great, when it’s not. You lose credibility.”
Questioned about current the state of the market, Herman seemed less interested in talking about the glittery high-end sales that keep the chattering classes busy than about lower priced opportunities, the sort of stuff that hardly ever generates press releases from marketing departments or comments from the boss. “People are always surprised when I tell them there are listings, and sometimes cute houses, for as low as five or six hundred thousand. And brokers don’t always emphasize this. I speak to buyers who are not holding out for dream houses but using strategically smart opportunities here and now. Financing is as important as sales price. Thirty year mortgages with no pre-payment penalty probably won’t be offered in the future.”
All three senior executives are convincing. You get the sense theirs are real opinions, not talking points, that their views are rooted in candor and experience, not entrenched cheerfulness. Then again, like the agents in the offices, they make their living this way too.